Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web

Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web

100 Comments

  1. The validity of this presentation is not dependent on whether you accept the referent 'machine' to describe the phenomenon which this author speaks of and which is empirically evident.

  2. Do we really "have to get better in believing the impossible," or do we need to learn that we have NO clue what will happen in the future based on anything we've known in the past? I'd venture to say that the second lesson is much more important. These vague predictions are no more likely to be true in 5,000 days than any other guess, except perhaps if one were to say that the future will most likely be different from today.

  3. Hahahaha this guy just answered his own question by conversing with himself for 19:07 seconds…i wonder how long it took him to prepare his analogy.

    Seriously its taken 50years of our best computer engineers to be where we are today with computers,why ?? because it is a product firstly for military followed by you and i 20yrs behind. It even depends on the country you live in so add another 10.
    Come on cars still run on oil, Tesla was using wireless communication over 100yrs ago.GREED stop us

  4. The word "I" is a subject pronoun. you should have said "…followed by you and ME 20 years behind"

    Don't try to sound intelligent if you aren't.

  5. hey thanks for replying. I didn't really disagree with you …truth be told , i'm actually writing a paper about the internet, and the freedom people feel in their relative anonymity to say things they wouldn't normally say. I needed to see if i could get someone angry enough to curse me out. Thanks. Would you mind if I quote your reply in my paper? I promise not to use you username.
    Sorry about seeming so rude.

  6. Well, gee wizz bright spark, why don't you just ask people how they feel being able to say what they like 'in their relative anonymity'. You never disagreed you only insulted me which in effect i reacted, whether or not people communicate via online over the phone or face to face there will be negative consequence to persons being rude or insulting. So i think your full of shit, and you can cram your paper up your 'A' hole, or share it with people of your level. Don't insult my intelligence.

  7. At 19:16 it seems he list the things that will grow large, we need to share (free licenses), we need a smart interface (like the Ubiquity add-on to firefox is starting to explore) and we need everything on the web (hopefully what the Google OS will do). The future seems as a good place to live. =)
    BTW: A good talk and a good video, but your slideshows is pretty bad.. 😉

  8. well kind of interesting… and some of the things he is describing are already happening now in 2010…
    at the end though, its sounds like the scientists have found GOD. The web is one, the web is God. Knows everything; sees everything, etc etc
    The end of the world perhaps?
    Following lecture, i want to know how this technology is going to affect my health… mental and physical… thanks

  9. What an interesting video. This "the one" thing sounds really cool, even if it will inevitably destroy the human race. As far as a name for it goes, my vote is definitely for "interwebs".

  10. This guy doesn't really offer any evidence supporting his conclusions, it's more like just 19:34 of his personal fantasy about the web. He should start his own religion : "First there was darkness & confusion among men, then came Google!"

  11. Mr Kevin Kelly ; Lets not forget this whole systems emerged and excists only in our minds. These minds all have an individual purpose, goal, mentality, lifestyle, culture, etc. etc. ….. I.T. is just one of the tools we've invented among many tools we've invented, to make life more worthwile. I.T. is an advanced structuring of information found by us. Nature does this all the time. I.T. is not a GOD, or a platform of knowledge that can become GOD.

  12. In short terms ; I can show you thousends of things about for instace ; milk. But you still don't know how it tastes, how it smells, how it feels ones you've eaten it. etc. etc..So ones again ; it's just an advanced tool, like a telescope to perceve information more efficient, versus, a telescope that can see light better. Nothing more. It doesn't regenarate like life is capable of. It's just a tool invented by us.

  13. Mr Kevin Kelly talks about sacrifising individual characterestics for becoming transparent. which is nesecary to cope with our I.T. inventions. This goes against a principle of nature ; Man can not stand being meaningless. Each person searches for it's own individual perception of nature.
    The nature of information is, that it looks inwards. the perception of that information determs the descisions made in the future. There by an inwards invention like I.T. should never detrm life in any subject

  14. Mr Neill ; Lets not forget humans (brain) come in two cocorresponding sexes. A computer network doesn't. It is hermafrodite at it's best. Let's not forget either, that the current economic system only gives acces to IT., for a maximum of 10 % of the world population. Let's not forget either that the total IT network, today, uses the amount of 24 energyplants en growing. While our brains just use 10 Watts an average………. . That's a different ratio, that you don't mention.

  15. Last comment of 5 ; So the IT. network is far from compareble to a human brain as possible. don't let the IT industry become a platform for the creation or worship of a new god. Remeber also, that IT is owned by humans who are greedy, egocentric, bussynesmen. They will show us what they prefer. 30 % of the net is populated by porn, science and education just fill a fraction of the total information content that IS It !

  16. @UnluckyGambler Lol. I guess at the end you realy are the information you perceive wright !? So enjoy the next 5000 days of the net. you don''t have to worry you get bored, since the net is rapidly expanding. Another 5000 days and you not only think about sex allday, you must be on the path of becoming sex itself. Atleast that's what Kelly suggests, I think……

  17. @etiennealive no thats not what hes suggesting. hes suggesting i can take porn with me wherever i go. i can have porn on my glasses, porn on my t-shirt, porn on my watch, porn on my toilet paper and condoms, porn on my girlfriend's hair, etc etc.

  18. @UnluckyGambler Lol, whatch out for your girlfriends hair, my girlfriend gets pretty upset, when her hair is messed up. Have a nice day.

  19. Lovely video. Thanks for sharing. Now my question is where and who stores this huge amount of information which is viewed by a trillion people? Any answers?

  20. What's the difference between this and "The Borg" on Star Trek? Nothing. Because 1% of the people in this country have enough money to inject overwhelming influence over us in every major sector including the public media, the education system, commercial marketing, politics and the health care industry. So the "One" ends up being whatever the big money wants it to be by either flooding the "One" with their propaganda or by flooding the "One" with dis-information to scramble competing ideas.

  21. If this ever happens, there is going to be virtual crimes like killing virtually someone, make identities disappear. Virtual Police would be needed and new laws and penalities. There would be no privacy anymore. Instead to speak to someone you will be able to know everything about them just by searching them on the web using a picture of his face. We could imagine the worst terrorist acts… We have to be careful

  22. the biggest shortcomings of this speech are inconsistency and contradiction. He says that 10 years ago, no one knew it would be this huge. Of course, because technology doesn't evolve in a lineair way. Funny thing tho, he talks about what's coming within 10 years. Waste of time imo, you can't assume it will evolve lineair. Furthermore, there is something called exponential growth. For example, see Moore's Law used it in the technology business. Therefore, I don't see the value in his speech.

  23. …but there IS a name for this 'machine'. It's called a Jupiter Brain!

    I dislike what he says about unifying social identities. I rather enjoy having multiple online personalities with their own circles of friends, and the privacy to keep them separate. When everything starts turning into computronium like he says, I wonder if people like me will get split into pieces…

  24. hello and good moring my favourite teacher @treyratcliff , thank you so much for reminding me of kevin kelly in 2008, xoxo, GENIUS…omg i didn't know he had something to do with The Matrix

  25. Very exciting! But it makes me wonder how long it will be before people start longing for privacy again. Will Kodak cameras make a comeback? That certain level of anonymity is what attracts most to the internet. I don't like the idea of everyone knowing everything about me and what I do. At what level do we retain individuality?
    SBernard

  26. the way i see it is that the "machine" is gonna become like a thinking human being. further more the machine is gonna become or is like the first technical human made baby. this machine could become the brain source for "irobot's" brain. but i think that this is still on a "baby" stage but it will grow. this is kinda beautiful actually when u think about it and nevertheless how it all started so spontaneously and now is gonna emerge …just like life it self. i have no words for it.

  27. Nobody will ever be okay with total dependence on something that is controlled by someone else. There will always be a market for independent processing and storing devices. This is the problem with most of the sci-fi people, they assume that the human psyche will all of a sudden be okay with dependence. What is the rationale they use for this? Even if there were unifications for providing this sort of processing and storing, there will be several suppliers

  28. @aikighost well this is kind of late (2 years) but I happen to live in one of the poorest countries this side of the globe (El Salvador) and most Every one (from the guy who sells coconuts, to the guy who is cutting the coconuts have a phone) you can get a new phone for $10 (pretty basic) and you can buy airtime from $0.25. It is just amazing.

  29. It reminds me of the David Brin's cristal-clear foresight, as he described the development of the World Wide web on his novel "EARTH", an amazing book he wrote back in the 80's.

  30. We have digitally created our own God, who whe can actually interact with and he'll help us do anything, find everything, hear and see everything. With it advancing so fast I can see it protecting us from everything through science. This was breathtaking.

  31. phew! that was a close one. I'm sure glad you werent in charge of things or we'd REALLY be in the shitter, my friend!

  32. Then the whole world wide web is shut down and its the apocalypes, hint futuristcic apocalyps movies coming.

  33. We may actually skip that third step. To me it seems unnecessary, with the creation of things like Google glasses we can immerse ourselfs in the web's information all the time. Then we will be codependent. That is the next step.

  34. Its funny he talks about the need for transparency and the leaving of privacy issues. I see this happening on a large scale with popular/personal culture, and through leaks on a political level (wikileaks, PRISM/snowden, etc).
    Yet a shift is needed where the popular culture and political level meet or merge and everything gets shared and disbands at the same time. Transparency on a personal level I am all for when personal means political at the same time. The boundary between them is illusory.

  35. Or the idea of an apocalypse is just a way for humans to escape their responsibility. The responsibility to clean up their fucking mess. That's the problem with a linear model of time, you don't come back to the mess you made. The image of an apocalypse means "something horrible happens to us from outside", it is a cop-out for lazy people.
    WE are the apocalypse, and it is happening inside us. Transform the linear into cyclical, and the apocalypse becomes a phoenix to rise from its own ashes…

  36. i agree with Benjamin. I live in the middle east and visit and work with Nepaleese and Bengaleese people. They make about 100 dollars a month if they work abroad and about 1 dollar a day if they work in their own country. They save a months salary and buy smartphones. it is very standard and now as an American, there is no distinct advantage other than that as Americans we get far better educations since the time we were born due to better quality of life. But that too will change.

  37. He's paid to try to talk people into getting the RFID brain implants that control you from remote computers through the web.  They've been developing the Brain Control chips since the 1940s.  Jose Delgado said that humans don't have the right to think for themselves, but at the end of his life he had regrets about how so many brain chip experiments went terribly wrong.  But he said that if he didn't do the experiments, they would pay someone else to do them.  The Luciferians at the Vatican and the United Nations are running the whole thing.

  38. Zuck must've watched this back in 2007….. KK is nailing so many terms & ideas that are NOW just being popularly promoted (by carpet-bagging hacks….)

  39. Techno-bollocks. This video contains even more cliches than the Matrix 2 movie. Even the cult of Kurzweilian Singularitarians will see obvious fallacies and 'prophetic inaccuracies' in the video 7 years later. Plus, Moore's Law stopped being valid long time ago. CPU research is currently stuck at the 3 nm scale with no obvious solutions. "The Being all One' Cult besides having theistic notions, it also reminds me of the extremely flawed Gaia Hypothesis of biologist Lovelock.(totally debunked) Okay, we live on the same planet, but we are NOT one.

  40. We won't need to be completely transparent if we use the Project Safe network. They also are at the forefront of making all computers work as "one" organism.

  41. Most commenters are missing the point that this talk was given in 2007…

    We are closer to the year these predictions are for (~2020) than the year these predictions were given.

  42. Mr. Kelly seems to have correctly predicted most developments in the Internet. Cloud-sharing has kept increasing in popularity and indeed we now have cloud-based operating systems. Data sharing is becoming the norm: any large company now has an API. Moreover, data science is becoming increasingly popular and the standardization of data collection, processing and sharing is developing rapidly.

    Now, I will share with you my views on how the speaker depicted the Internet. His Matrix-like reference to the Internet as a unified being has obviously attracted the attention of some lunatic conspiracy theorists. Whether or not you see a network as an organism in the literal sense or in the metaphoric sense is only a matter of philosophy and not a matter of semantic. Defining the Internet as an organism with data collection, data processing and data sharing as its central means of functioning is equivalent to defining it as the abstract term that denotes the interaction between persons, their computers and their programs. Both point to the same thing; there is no difference in meaning. So no matter what interpretation you prefer, realize none of them point to esoteric views such as that all people are part of a collective conscience or other purely speculative psycho-analytical crap.

    So please, do not resort to claiming the speaker is trying to promote conspiracy theorists when he is only defining the internet in terms of other, similar structures such as the brain or single-cell organisms. Acknowledge that he did not refer to humans in this regard. Consequently, stop identifying the speaker's claims as belonging to some conspiracy theory.

  43. 真的 當未來還沒實現時 我們無法脫離現有的框架 當未來已經在實現 我們會把他視為理所當然 像相機 音樂播放器 遊覽器都在你的智慧型手機裡 就在你的口袋 這些功能以前人根本無法想像 到了現在大家卻視為理所當然 但以前的人講出來卻會被當成天馬行空 所以我們要相信那些只是還沒到的未來 而不是不可能的事情

  44. At this point, the talk is beginning to sound dated..but all that really means is that things are progressing faster than we "feel" they are. What was probably edgy in 2007 seems obvious in 2015. Business IT types may not understand much of this (for instance, the importance of everything being machine-readable, and everything needing an API..something I have been ranting about forever…vendors should be kicked to the curb if they try to sell you a walled garden). Great talk even though its history now.

  45. I still use this Talk in my classroom, and make students identify which predictions have actually happened and which have not, as well as which have come around in a different way, and which have come around that were not even thought of back then. Interesting exercise!

  46. so, our smartphones will soon devolve back into dumb terminals and EVERYTHING will be on the centralized cloud? next, our brains will turn into dumb wetware and we'll have to permanently jack-in to the cloud for knowledge.. I see the makings of a good screenplay here.. it'll be called "The Cloud" ..coming soon to Netflix

  47. Kevin Kelly is a wise man. EG2 was February 1-4 2007, 4000 days ago. We are now at 4/5. And here I am, walking around my room, writing this inside Gear VR using Oculus Browser and motion controller. There was undoubtedly a substantial progress since then. I want to see how the World will be after next 1000 days. Internet of Things is beginning now but it won't mature until late 2030s.

  48. It's Amazing how wrong his predictions have been so far (MOSTLY), now that we check his predictions 10 years later

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